COUNTER PRODUCTIVE CAMPAIGN FOR THREE CHILDREN FAMILY IN INDIA
While India’s present ( year 2025 ) population is around 1400 million., the population was 359 million in the year 1950 and it sharply climbed to 1050 million in the year 2000. India’s population is now continuing to rise and it is estimated that the population would be around 1700 million in the year 2050.
The intensity of India’s population problem can be well realized , by noting that India’s present population density is 464 people per square kilometer, compared to the population density of other countries with large land size such as 151 people per square metre in China , 90 people per square kilometer in USA and 9 people per square kilometer in Russia. Compared to the population density of other countries including countries with large land size, it can be said that India’s population density is now at unacceptably high level. Some critics say that India is “overflowing with people”!
What India need ?
A few economists point out that with India’s large land size and availability of natural resources and strong agricultural base , if India’s population were to be around 1000 million or less, possibly, India would be economically and even socially much better placed than what it is today..
In such circumstances, what India need today is reduction in the population to some extent and certainly not increase.
Alternate view :
While population control measures in the past have been one of the priority policies of Government of India, in recent time, the population debate seem to have taken a U turn, with government also not seem to be paying attention to the problem.
Concern has been expressed by well intentioned analysts that Indian population is declining and it is now likely to reach the replacement level of around 2.1 per family and may decline further. While in some states such as U P, Bihar, Rajasthan the children per family exceed 3 on an average , in states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala , the average children per family is said to be less than 2. These are broad estimated figures.
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In such circumstances, it is highlighted that if the overall population growth were to become less than replacement level, the consequences of declining population would be severe such as lack of working hands , ageing population etc. In support of such view, the issues that have arisen in Japan , South Korea due to fall in birth rate and ageing population has been highlighted. Further, in support of such view , China’s failed experiment with one child policy to reduce population , which was subsequently given up and reversed to original practice has been pointed out ,
Analysts with alternate view insist that India should learn from the experience in South Korea , Japan and China with regard to population issue and derive the right lessons.
Analysts say that “ to save India “ from the population decline possibility due to falling birth rate, every family in India should have three children.
Grim consequence of over population :
The population issue in India is different from the population issue in Japan, South Korea , China and a few other countries in view of the high level of population density in India, which is now at an alarming level. If such population density were to continue and become more in the coming years, then the consequences would be very severe with several socio economic concerns.
Unemployment issue :
Today, inspite of the fact that India is progressing economically at reasonable pace , unemployment level remains high. Such unemployment level often lead to social tensions as “idle mind is devil’s workshop”. Obviously, it is now evident that it is impossible to keep India’s large population in the working age group well employed and well occupied. This is the ground reality.
In the coming years, such unemployment problem would become more severe in India due to automation, mechanization, the rising use of artificial intelligence, robots, drones etc. which are inevitable Even today, in the farming sector in India which is the backbone of Indian economy, job prospects have become less due to use of tractors , mechanized facilities for harvesting and use of drones for spraying pesticides etc. Migration of rural population to urban cities due to declining job opportunities in agricultural farm in rural area is clearly evident.
Food concern :
According to the report published by OECD – FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-20234 , by 2034, India is expected to contribute nearly 30% of global increase in wheat output, fueled by rising yields .India is also set to overtake China as the world’s largest rice producer, accounting for 41% of the projected increase in global output.
The same report has also warned that increasing domestic demand especially for wheat means that India may turn into a net importer of wheat by the year 2034.
With the population steadily increasing and agricultural land area in India unlikely to increase and on the other hand only likely to decline due to conversion of agricultural land for infrastructure and other projects, food concerns could arise in the future , if population growth were to remain unchecked. Given the global warming issues and consequent seasonal variations ,the output of agri products may also suffer from time to time. While these are unpredictable factors, it is necessary to be cautious and plan for possible adverse conditions in future.
Ageing population :
The apprehension about social issues due to ageing population caused by longevity of life in India and falling birth rate ,is much exaggerated, since people these days continue to keep themselves occupied upto the age of 70 in many cases and even beyond the age of 70 in some cases. This is so , since the modern facilities ensure that physical labour is not needed for many types of operations.
It is also necessary to remember that even while children per family may decline to some extent, the longevity of life of people have created a developing balancing population situation ,where the population would continue to increase inspite of lower number of children per family. This condition is already seen now , as present population continue to increase inspite of the children per family are nearing replacement level in some parts of India.
Migration abroad :
As India remains as the most densely populated country in the world and with largest population amongst countries in the world, there is increasing tendency seen now where Indians opt to migrate to other countries, seeking better fortunes. Critics in such countries have expressed concern about the demographic balance of their countries getting disturbed due to migration from other countries and with India happen to be the country with largest level of migrants seeking greener pastures elsewhere. In recent times, in Europe, Canada, Australia and USA , violent attacks have been reported against the migrants. This scenario indicates the possible negative impact of over populated conditions in some countries .
Need holistic view :
It has to be pointed out that the call for three children per family have been voiced only in some quarters like Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh and section of politicians and thinkers in states where the children per family are declining to some extent. Such critics have not taken a holistic view of the scenario in the entire country but have only adopted a narrow vision of scenario in their own region such as Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. This does not amount to taking a holistic view of the scenario in the entire country, which is absolutely necessary.
What population target ?
It is necessary that government of India should take a view on what is the appropriate population for India, given the need to ensure satisfactory economic , social opportunity of the citizens in an optimum manner. Perhaps, careful study would indicate that 1000 million population could be the most appropriate population level for India .
In other words, it calls for decline in the population to the level of 1000 million and then maintaining this population level with 2.1 children per family as replacement level.
