{"id":111090,"date":"2023-03-26T14:19:19","date_gmt":"2023-03-26T14:19:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/?p=111090"},"modified":"2023-03-26T14:20:06","modified_gmt":"2023-03-26T14:20:06","slug":"the-yahapaalana-legacy-and-three-major-international-events-processes-driving-sri-lanka-to-bankruptcy-by-michael-roberts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/the-yahapaalana-legacy-and-three-major-international-events-processes-driving-sri-lanka-to-bankruptcy-by-michael-roberts\/","title":{"rendered":"The Yahapaalana Legacy and Three Major International Events\/Processes driving Sri Lanka to Bankruptcy-by Michael Roberts"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Yahapaalana Legacy and Three Major International Events\/Processes driving Sri Lanka to Bankruptcy-by Michael Roberts<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Michael<\/p>\n

Source:<\/span><\/strong>Thuppahis<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

I sent Mr TRUTHSEEKER Two Questions, prefaced by a general statement: namely: \u201c<\/strong>I am no good in economic assessments<\/span><\/p>\n

Q-11<\/strong>\u00a0= I have no doubt that some or all of the Rajapaksas have accumulated monies \u2026. AND that corruption\u00a0at many levels of government had some draining impact, BUT has all that been a major factor?<\/span><\/p>\n

Q 22<\/strong>\u00a0\u2026 Has\u2019nt the USA induced IMF programme dating from 2009 or so \u2013as payback for Sri Lanka\u2019s temerity in rejecting Hilary Clinton\u2019s programme**<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 been\u00a0a MAJOR FACTOR in the present situation [after the pro-US Sirisena govt fell from power]?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u2026.\u00a0with Lanka\u2019s China-leanings being a further inducement towards this payback pressure?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Michael<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"elanka\"<\/a><\/span>
\nTRUTHSEEKER responded thus, 26 April 2022<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"elanka\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Q11 = No corruption involved in this instance. The figures speak for themselves. There is no way any govt would have been able to avoid a financial meltdown given the massive payments put upon the country by the previous Yahapalana govt taking $12 billion in International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs) in their years of 2015-2019. This in addition to the rest of the external debt the country was carrying.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"elanka\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike other debt taken, ISBs are very difficult to manage because they have to be paid out at maturity irrespective of any circumstances, since default is not an option with its concomitant damaging effects on the country\u2019s creditworthiness. Whereas appeals are possible for restructuring or rescheduling other types of debt to multilaterals or bilaterals or institutions. The first is a \u2018hard default\u2019 if not paid on due date and the second \u2018structured default\u2019 is what we\u2019ve now committed to through IMF program. But default it is and ratings agencies have downgraded SL further to abysmal level.<\/span><\/p>\n

It was irresponsible of the Yahapalana govt to put this heavy ISB burden on Sri Lanka\u2019s already poor economy. This legacy then made payments completely unsustainable with two years of pandemic and finally the Ukraine war has aggravated a condition that was already calamitous.<\/span><\/p>\n

An important question they need to answer is what the Yahapalana administration did with the $12 billion taken?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 There was no war to fight as in final years of 2005-2009<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 There was no reconstruction needed for every part of the country as in 2009-2014 resulting from destruction of 30 years of war.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 There was no infrastructure development, no development projects set up, no connectivity projects, no urgently needed new power generation plants (the last one set up was the Norochcholai coal fired plant under MRs govt).<\/span><\/p>\n

People have been told for political reasons that \u201ccorruption\u201d was the reason for the financial crisis and are convinced money \u201cstolen\u201d would have been able to pay for essential imports. But have a look at payouts needed for maturing ISBs shown in the graph below vs govt income which had collapsed for past two years as a result of the pandemic\u2019s impact:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 $5 billion per year lost from tourist income<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 $5 billion per year lost from workers inward remittances<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 Exports coming down to a standstill practically, same as other countries<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2013 38% of 2020 budget having to be allocated to Covid19 expenditure.<\/span><\/p>\n

To be fair, what went wrong in the equation of trying to struggle through somehow without going to IMF was the completely unexpected Ukraine war breaking out in February. THAT was the last straw on top of pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n

But ultimately it was a question of choosing priorities \u2013 and imports of essential items should have been prioritised over debt repayments, whatever the default consequences or solutions entailed.<\/span><\/p>\n

The reason for the govt finance people keeping on trying to somehow make the ISB payments as they fell due was because going to IMF causes so much hardship to a country\u2019s poor people. As is now happening with depreciation, sky rocketing prices for imports of fuel, petrol, diesel, etc. People are going to get even more angry and violent when all this kicks in. The stability of the country is very much at threat \u2013 and may leave SL open to inimical influences.<\/span><\/p>\n

Is this the IMF capitalist agenda at US bidding? Pakistan recently is a good example of manipulation. Imran Khan was inclining to China, but had to go to IMF for a bailout package as the backing gives credibility to creditors. So, $6 billion was approved, but only half at $3 billion was given until \u201cstability\u201d was achieved, and Imran Khan lost power. New govt came in and IMF immediately approved and gave $11 billion!<\/span><\/p>\n

***********<\/span><\/p>\n

Q22 \u2013 Yes, the underlying agenda is political and not economic \u2013 regime change is being manipulated just as it was in 2015 when US funded it with $450 million spent via NGOs to get Yahapalana govt in. This time they are determined to get the Rajapakses out for good because MR and GR are the only ones who will stand up to international pressure, as proven in 2009, and are determined to keep SLs sovereignty safe. Geopolitical games are hard to withstand.<\/span><\/p>\n

******************************************<\/span><\/p>\n

My Truthseeker piece details ISBs taken with dates of issue and maturity. One graph below shows trajectory of external debt taken from 1978-2019 under various govts.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"elanka\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\"elanka\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\"elanka\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Yahapaalana Legacy and Three Major International Events\/Processes driving Sri Lanka to Bankruptcy-by Michael Roberts Source:Thuppahis I sent Mr TRUTHSEEKER Two Questions, prefaced by a general statement: namely: \u201cI am no good in economic assessments Q-11\u00a0= I have no doubt that some or all of the Rajapaksas have accumulated monies \u2026. AND that corruption\u00a0at many […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":111091,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"aside","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,42710],"tags":[4590,51902],"class_list":{"0":"post-111090","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-aside","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-articles","8":"category-michael-roberts","9":"tag-imran-khan","10":"tag-major-international-events","11":"post_format-post-format-aside"},"yoast_head":"\nThe Yahapaalana Legacy and Three Major International Events\/Processes driving Sri Lanka to Bankruptcy-by Michael Roberts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I sent Mr TRUTHSEEKER Two Questions, prefaced by a general statement: namely: \u201cI am no good in economic assessmentsQ-11\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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