{"id":49880,"date":"2020-09-11T16:02:21","date_gmt":"2020-09-11T16:02:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/?p=49880"},"modified":"2021-12-24T10:47:09","modified_gmt":"2021-12-24T10:47:09","slug":"noel-news-by-noel-whittaker-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/noel-news-by-noel-whittaker-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Noel News- By Noel Whittaker"},"content":{"rendered":"

Noel News- By Noel Whittaker<\/span><\/h1>\n

\"Noel<\/p>\n

The error of youth is to believe that intelligence is a substitute for experience, while the error of age is to believe experience is a substitute for intelligence.<\/em><\/span>
\nLYMAN BRYSON<\/span><\/p>\n

Welcome to our September newsletter \u2013 it\u2019s amazing how quickly time passes. It was in my February newsletter that Covid-19 got its first mention, and then in the March newsletter I wrote:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we are facing now is far worse than the GFC and I believe it will change many people\u2019s behaviour for the rest of their lives. During the GFC, business kept on going \u2013 now it\u2019s been stopped dead. A few months ago, we were talking about a balanced budget \u2013 now we face the perfect storm of businesses everywhere going broke, hundreds of thousands of people out of work, and the government pumping everything it can to try to save the economy. The decline in tax receipts will be massive \u2013 as will be the increase in expenditure. It could take our debt to over $1 trillion!\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Noel<\/p>\n

That was certainly prophetic, though I can\u2019t take much credit for stating the obvious. Last week it was officially announced that we are in recession, and now all the commentary is what we should do about it. One group is pushing the government to cut taxes on the grounds that extra spending will stimulate the economy \u2013 another group is saying that we are better off to keep Jobseeker at its present levels. I must confess I am more inclined to agree with the second view. After all, a tax cut is no good to people with no income, and many people in jobs who do receive a tax cut are probably going to save it for a rainy day in case things get much worse.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, keeping Jobseeker at its present level makes it a virtual certainty that any stimulus money will go straight into the economy, since most of the people who receive it will have no option but to spend it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite recent volatility, the strength of the share market has been extraordinary. The S&P\/ASX 200 completed a fifth consecutive month of gains with a total return of 3% for August.\u00a0The ASX 200 has gained 19% since March, the best five-month period since 2009, but another 18% gain is required to recover February\u2019s all-time-highs.<\/span><\/p>\n

The big question is how long the stock market rally can continue. Last week Rachel Lane, Adam Creighton (of\u00a0The Australian<\/em>), and myself did a\u00a0webinar for the Starts at 60<\/a>\u00a0group, sponsored by Ingenia. Adam produced the graph below which highlights how much of the recovery has been solely due to government spending. This begs the question as to what will happen as stimulus spending tapers off in line with what\u2019s on the graph.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Noel<\/p>\n

Of course, this means uncertain times ahead, especially when we factor in the US presidential election. If Joe Biden gets over the line, stock markets may plunge. Realistically, all we can do is to go back to basics \u2013 this means we accept the fact that it\u2019s impossible to pick the ups and downs of markets, which means we stay our course as long as our portfolio is diversified and fits our risk profile.<\/span><\/p>\n

Remember to keep at least 3-4 years expenditure in cash to give us time to ride out whatever volatility is certain to occur in the next few months. If you\u2019ve got a large holding of Australian shares, you may even consider having a hedge by way of an investment in BBOZ which I discussed in my\u00a0previous newsletter<\/a>. It\u2019s a reverse index tracker, meaning that if the index rises 5%, BBOZ will drop 10%. Conversely, if the index drops 15%, BBOZ will rise 30%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scams<\/span><\/h1>\n

Since the pandemic began, reports of scam victims have increased by 55%, and scammers have extracted more than $500 million from Australians in just the last four months.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Scams\"<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t think you are too smart to be caught. My friend Roger, who is a retired businessman, went to Harvey Norman recently to get himself a new photocopier. His requirements were that it could connect wirelessly and not cost an arm and a leg in supplies. After consultation, he settled on a Canon.<\/span><\/p>\n

He was having a frustrating time connecting it to his Wi-Fi when a notice popped up on his computer screen purporting to be from Canon. It noted he was having technical issues, and suggested he ring a certain number so Canon technicians could sort out the issue as part of the after-sales service.<\/span><\/p>\n

It seemed genuine, so he rang the number. It was answered by a non-Australian person who said he was part of the Canon technical team and would need access to the computer to connect the photocopier. Roger tells me that after an hour of searching in his computer the alleged technician said that there would be a $980 service fee. Roger was horrified and said he would have to think about it \u2013 the response was that it must be paid immediately.<\/span><\/p>\n

Roger hung up and called Harvey Norman to complain about the audacity of Canon to charge an installation fee that was more than the cost of the photocopier. They were shocked \u2013 and gave him the genuine Canon phone number to ring to complain. You guessed it: Canon were horrified as well, but did mention that this was becoming a common occurrence.<\/span><\/p>\n

And it didn\u2019t end there. Roger\u2019s computer had been hacked, which meant he spent the next two weeks cancelling credit cards, changing passwords, and advising everybody he dealt with about what was, effectively, a break-in.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Scams\"<\/p>\n

I think by now most of us are smart enough not to click on links in emails we don\u2019t trust, but this takes scamming to a new level. It seems you now need to be wary about any phone numbers that pop up on your computer, and above all be extremely wary about who gets remote access to your computer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another scam that has been doing the rounds for months is the robocall from \u201cNicole from the NBN\u201d telling tell you that your NBN is to be terminated tomorrow and you need to press 1 to reactivate it. Having had a few of these calls, I have always wondered what the scammer can gain by asking you to press 1.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ACCC tell me that pressing that button identifies you as a person who would be likely to accept other calls from scammers in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Scams\"<\/p>\n

So stay on your guard. And if you are paying money by bank transfer, be especially careful, because some scammers are now hacking into emails and changing the bank details of people you owe money to. When you receive a bill, you now need to confirm that the bank details on the invoice are the same as the details held by your bank for previous payments. If in doubt, ring the supplier before payment.<\/span><\/p>\n

And of course if it’s a new payee, make sure you ring their office, using a phone number you know to be genuine (not necessarily the one on the invoice) and confirm the account numbers are genuine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Announcement: Brand new book<\/span>
\n\u2018Mental Dynamite\u2019<\/span><\/h1>\n

As many of you know,\u00a0Think and Grow Rich<\/em>\u00a0by Napoleon Hill was the book that completely changed my life. You could imagine my surprise when, in 2018, my son James \u2013 who at the time had been living in the US for six years \u2013 was asked to write a modern companion called\u00a0Think and Grow Rich: The Legacy<\/em>! His book quickly became an international bestseller and has since been translated into six languages.<\/span><\/p>\n

Today, his brand new book\u00a0Andrew Carnegie\u2019s Mental Dynamite<\/em><\/a>\u00a0has just been released. Fortunately, I was able to get my hands on an advance copy and it is a riveting read, especially given the times we\u2019re in. It has major international distribution and is released in partnership with the Napoleon Hill Foundation.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Scams<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Andrew Carnegie\u2019s Mental Dynamite<\/em>\u00a0serves as a blueprint for harnessing success in business and life. It\u2019s motivational, inspirational, and highly actionable. If you want a step-by-step guide to happiness and prosperity during one of the toughest times we will ever face, this book is a must read.<\/span><\/p>\n

Order your copy today:<\/span><\/h3>\n

Hardcover<\/b><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kindle<\/b><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Bill Gates on Warren Buffet<\/span><\/h1>\n

I have long been a big fan of both Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, but many people don\u2019t know they are best friends, and even play bridge online every day. I also subscribe to Bill Gates\u2019s newsletter, and in the recent edition he penned this as a tribute to Warren Buffett on his 90th<\/sup>\u00a0birthday. I think it\u2019s just wonderful:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bill<\/p>\n

I couldn\u2019t possibly list all the interests Warren and I share. But one thing we discovered the first time we met is that we both love math and numbers. So in honour of Warren\u2019s birthday, I thought I would share a few numbers related to turning 90\u2014and to our friendship.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n