{"id":53609,"date":"2020-11-30T13:20:25","date_gmt":"2020-11-30T13:20:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/?p=53609"},"modified":"2020-11-30T13:20:25","modified_gmt":"2020-11-30T13:20:25","slug":"fitch-downgrades-sl-on-debt-sustainability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/fitch-downgrades-sl-on-debt-sustainability\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch downgrades SL on debt sustainability"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"innerheader\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Fitch downgrades SL on debt sustainability<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-53610 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Despite-pro-growth-policies-525x400.jpg\" alt=\"Despite pro-growth policies\" width=\"525\" height=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Despite pro-growth policies outlined in Budget 2021, including for construction, Fitch Ratings yesterday downgraded Sri Lanka on growing debt repayment concerns\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #800000;\">Source:<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #000000; font-size: 20px;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.lk\/top-story\/Fitch-downgrades-SL-on-debt-sustainability\/26-709481\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FT<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\"><strong>Reduces Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to \u2018CCC\u2019<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\"><strong>Main reason cited as challenging debt repayment position worsened by COVID-19\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\"><strong>SL has to repay $ 23.2 b from 2021-2025, but reserves of only $ 5.9 b\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\"><strong>Says Govt. plans to meet debt repayments increasingly challenging, debt-to-GDP ratio to increase to 116% by 2024<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\"><strong>Warns Budget projections of revenue and deficit targets too ambitious, expects growth to be 4%, revenue 11% of GDP\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\"><strong>Expects growth to contract by 6.7% in 2020, but record turnaround of 4.9% in 2021\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Fitch Ratings yesterday downgraded Sri Lanka\u2019s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to \u2018CCC\u2019 on increasing challenges to its external-debt repayment position, worsened by COVID-19 impact.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Issuing a statement, the international rating agency said it typically does not assign Outlooks or apply modifiers to sovereigns with a rating of \u2018CCC\u2019 or below.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cThe downgrade reflects Sri Lanka\u2019s increasingly challenging external-debt repayment position over the medium-term. In particular, a sharp rise in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio associated with the coronavirus shock and narrowing financing options have heightened debt sustainability risks,\u201d the statement said. The rating agency had earlier projected that Sri Lanka\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio would surpass 100% in 2021.\u00a0<\/span><br \/>\n<!--more--><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cSri Lanka\u2019s external funding needs are substantial over the medium-term, and in our view, risks to the sovereign\u2019s ability to meet its external-debt service obligations have increased. The Government\u2019s external-debt obligations amount to $ 23.2 billion between 2021 and 2025 or about $ 4 billion annually, against FX reserves at end-October of just $ 5.9 billion. The sovereign\u2019s financing and debt service challenges are exacerbated by its existing financing model, which has resulted in very high general Government interest to revenues ratios. The average interest-to-revenue ratio from 2016 to 2020 is about 50%, substantially above the \u2018CCC\u2019 peer median of about 11%.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">The authorities plan to meet their external-debt obligations in 2021-2025 through a combination of sources, including bilateral, multilateral and commercial financing, but in Fitch\u2019s view, access to such external financing options will become more challenging against the backdrop of already high debt levels and an expected further weakening of Government debt dynamics.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Meanwhile, Fitch believes that financing conditions for potential market issuance have tightened materially, notwithstanding the reduction in political and policy uncertainty following the completion of parliamentary elections in August 2020 and submission of the draft Budget 2021 in November.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cWe think there are now increasing risks to Sri Lanka\u2019s ability to meet its external-debt repayments as reflected in our forecast of a steady decline in FX reserves in 2021 and 2022. We expect Sri Lanka\u2019s external liquidity ratio, defined as liquid external assets\/external liabilities, will remain low at about 63%, against a \u2018CCC\u2019 median of about 68% in 2021.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">In the 2021 budget, the authorities have planned external borrowings of project and program loans, mostly through bilateral and multilateral sources (about $ 1.8 billion), as well as foreign commercial loans (about $ 1.4 billion) for budget support. The authorities do not currently anticipate a financing arrangement with the IMF.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Fitch estimates Sri Lanka\u2019s Government debt-to-GDP ratio to increase to about 100% in 2020 from 86.8% in 2019, and to rise further under its baseline scenario to around 116% in 2024. This trajectory is in sharp contrast to the authorities\u2019 medium-term fiscal strategy, which envisages a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio to 75.5% in 2025, from their estimate of 95.1% in 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">The authorities are forecasting a pick-up in revenues to 14.2% of GDP by 2025, from their estimate of 9.5% in 2020, with GDP growth picking up to 6% or higher over the medium-term. They also project a primary surplus by 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cOur baseline projections are based on more conservative, and we believe, realistic, assumptions for economic growth, revenue and interest payments. Sri Lanka lacks a track record of sustained primary surpluses, its revenue-to-GDP ratio has stayed low and GDP growth has been weak (growth averaged 3.7% in 2015-2019). Accordingly, our baseline assumptions for 2021-2024 incorporate average annual growth of about 4%, a primary deficit of about 2% of GDP, and revenue-to-GDP of about 11%.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Sri Lanka\u2019s 2021 budget targets a widening deficit of 8.9% of GDP, from 7.9% of GDP for 2020. The budget contains numerous tax incentives for the agricultural sector and policies to facilitate private investment. It also includes reforms to improve tax collection and administration, and the introduction of a special goods and services tax for alcohol, betting and gaming, telecommunication and vehicles.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cIn our view, the official revenue projection of nominal revenue growth of about 28% in 2021 is highly ambitious, given the lack of major revenue-raising measures and the numerous tax incentives, coupled with the tax cuts announced towards end-2019. The budget also targets a large increase in spending, particularly public investment, raising it from an estimated 2.6% of GDP in 2020 to 6.1% of GDP in 2021.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Fitch said the Budget lacks a credible fiscal consolidation strategy and provides only limited details on the potential revenue impact of some of the measures announced, raising uncertainty about the Government\u2019s planned reduction in Government debt and budget deficit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cAs such, we project the budget deficit to widen to about 11.5% of GDP in 2021 and 2022. This forecast is based on our GDP growth assumption of 4.9% in 2021, compared to the authorities\u2019 5.5%. Sri Lanka\u2019s low revenue-to-GDP ratio has remained a key weakness in the fiscal profile and we expect it to remain below the \u2018CCC\u2019 median of 23% in 2021.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Sri Lanka\u2019s economic performance has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic through multiple channels, even though the virus has been relatively well contained domestically. Travel and tourism, which is an important driver of the economy, has been hard hit and the outlook for its recovery remains uncertain and dependent on the evolution of the pandemic. The direct contribution of tourism to GDP is about 4%, but the indirect spill-over effect is much higher, the report said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cPrivate consumption, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, was weakened by the domestic lockdown in place between March and May. GDP contracted by 1.6% in 1Q20 and we expect an even sharper contraction in 2Q (publication of the 2Q GDP data has been delayed).\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cOverall, we expect GDP to contract by 6.7% in 2020 and to begin recovering in 2021 by 4.9%, partly driven by the low-base effect. Our forecasts are subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to the path of the pandemic globally and in Sri Lanka. However, recent positive news on vaccine development initiatives has highlighted the potential for the gradual roll-out of a medical solution to the pandemic from early 2021, which could facilitate a return to economic normalisation and mitigate the downside risks to macro-forecasts.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Remittances have performed unexpectedly well during the pandemic, growing by about 2.7% YOY between January-October, and have helped support the external position. However, Fitch is of the view that this increase is temporary due to factors such as workers repatriating their savings before returning home, and a shift towards more formal remittance channels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">The stronger remittance inflows alongside a decline in imports due to various import controls has kept Sri Lanka\u2019s current account from deteriorating significantly in 2020. Fitch expects the current account deficit to remain manageable at 2% to 3% of GDP in 2021 and 2022, as some of those import controls are likely to remain in place.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Sri Lanka\u2019s basic human development indicators, including education standards, are high compared with the \u2018CCC\u2019 median. Based on the UN Human Development Index Score, Sri Lanka is in the 63rd percentile, well above the 27th percentile for the \u2018CCC\u2019 median. The country\u2019s per capita income of $ 3,775 estimated by Fitch at end-2020 is above the \u2018CCC\u2019 median of $ 2,661.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">\u201cThe operating environment for banks in Sri Lanka remains challenging and we expect banks\u2019 financial profiles to come under stress. The sector regulatory non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 4.7% by end-2019, prior to the economic disruptions from the pandemic, and reached 5.4% by end 1H20. Underlying asset-quality stress could continue to build, despite the regulatory relief in the form of a moratorium for affected customers that has to a large extent halted the recognition of credit impairment. Sri Lankan banks could also face increased challenges in the access to \u2013 and pricing of \u2013 foreign currency funding stemming from the deteriorating sovereign credit profile.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px; color: #000000;\">Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score of \u20185\u2019 for Political Stability and Rights as well as for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as is the case for all sovereigns. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators have in Fitch\u2019s proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Sri Lanka has a medium World Bank Governance Indicator ranking in the 46th percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fitch downgrades SL on debt sustainability Despite pro-growth policies outlined in Budget 2021, including for construction, Fitch Ratings yesterday downgraded Sri Lanka on growing debt repayment concerns\u00a0 \u00a0 Source:FT Reduces Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to \u2018CCC\u2019 Main reason cited as challenging debt repayment position worsened by COVID-19\u00a0 SL has to repay $ 23.2 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":53610,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"aside","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[13619],"class_list":{"0":"post-53609","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-aside","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-articles","8":"tag-covid-19","9":"post_format-post-format-aside"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.7.1 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Fitch downgrades SL on debt sustainability<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fitch Ratings yesterday downgraded Sri Lanka\u2019s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to \u2018CCC\u2019 on increasing challenges\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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