{"id":92184,"date":"2022-05-19T16:14:10","date_gmt":"2022-05-19T16:14:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/?p=92184"},"modified":"2022-05-19T16:14:10","modified_gmt":"2022-05-19T16:14:10","slug":"whats-next-for-the-sri-lankan-economy-by-kalani-kumarasinghe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/whats-next-for-the-sri-lankan-economy-by-kalani-kumarasinghe\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s next for the Sri Lankan Economy?-by Kalani Kumarasinghe"},"content":{"rendered":"

What\u2019s next for the Sri Lankan Economy?-by Kalani Kumarasinghe<\/span><\/span><\/h1>\n

\"Sri<\/p>\n

Source:<\/span><\/strong>Dailymirror<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Kalani<\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s briefing by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was a rude awakening for many across the country. Although several parliamentarians, economists and industry stakeholders had long warned that the Sri Lankan economy would eventually come to a standstill unless interventions are made, much of these calls went unheard.<\/span>
\nOver the Vesak weekend, usually marked with dansal, colourful lanterns and illuminated pandols, people were seen queuing for petrol and kerosene. Unlike other years, only a few events to distribute food were organized by community groups despite skyrocketing prices of food. Sri Lankans it seemed are slowly adjusting to their new normal of extended power cuts and long queues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe meanwhile exposed many realities and inconvenient truths on the state of the Sri Lankan economy. According to his speech, the Government incurs massive losses, as does the Ceylon Electricity Board. Meanwhile the State Pharmaceutical Corporation he said is at the risk of getting blacklisted as a result of not making payments for some four months. The result is a shortage of drugs which includes drugs that treat heart disease. Moreover, as the generation of electricity requires oil, Sri Lanka could face power outages that could last 15 hours a day, he warned.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

How did we get here?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

How will a country come out of an economic crisis as severe as this? How did we as a country get into a situation this bad, we asked Economist Umesh Moramudali of the Colombo University. \u201cWe have various forms of debt. All of this debt is responsible for the situation we are in. But the biggest concern was the international sovereign bonds, accounting for the majority of the foreign loans that we have currently, which is around 40% of outstanding foreign loans. You can see how big this burden is when you look at the foreign debt repayments. Out of the total foreign loan repayments — almost 50% for last year, this year and upcoming years are for sovereign bonds. That is a clear indication that significant burden is coming from there,\u201d he explained.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\nThese loans are difficult to pay because they have different maturity structures, Moramudali added. \u201cYou don\u2019t pay these loans across a number of years. For instance a 500 million loan is not repaid in 100 million installments. Instead you pay a very high interest every year and then you pay the full amount in one go. Imagine a situation where you take 10 lakhs from a friend, every year you pay the interest. After five years, you pay the entire 10 lakhs. It\u2019s a big burden, so the way in which a repayment structure is arranged in a sovereign bond is one of the major concerns as to why we are in this situation,\u201d he said.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sri Lanka is unable to make these repayments as the country doesn\u2019t generate enough foreign currency because our exports haven\u2019t gone up. \u201cOn the other hand, loan repayments go up. This means that there is more dollar outflows and very little dollar inflows. Obviously the gap is higher and it\u2019s very difficult to manage,\u201d he added.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span>
\nAccording to Former Governor of the Central Bank Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy, the origins of the crisis can be traced back to seven decades. \u201cIn my view, the primary cause for Sri Lanka\u2019s regression from being the second most advanced country in Asia at the time of independence, to where we are now is due to macroeconomic instability. The primary cause for that has been the government\u2019s fiscal operations, the government\u2019s budget has been the main source of instability,\u201d Coomaraswamy said speaking at an online event organized by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is only the first step. The staff will then have to make a proposal to the executive board of the IMF for an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) which would give us about a billion dollars a year, over three years\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0–\u00a0\u00a0Former Governor of the Central Bank Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cSri Lankans have been living beyond our means since the 1950s. That has not changed. But we got away with it. 16 times we went to the IMF. We were a donor darling for much of the time because we were a low income country and were able to attract high levels of concessional foreign aid which helped us to tide things over. Despite that, we never really disciplined fiscal operations; A result of a toxic combination of populist politics on one hand and entrenched entitlement on the part of the people,\u201d Coomaraswamy opined.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span>
\nAround 2010 when Sri Lanka graduated to middle income country status, the country had negligible amounts of commercial borrowing, according to the former Governor. \u201cAt that time the major central banks were flushing a lot of liquidity into their system and there were many looking for high yield in the global economy and we were able to take advantage of it and borrow in the form of international sovereign bond.\u201d he said.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\u201cProblems were aggravated\u2014fiscal deficit was affected by the dramatic decline in revenue. Upto the mid-1990s, revenue was around 20% of GDP. It has now come down to a little over 8%. Even before the pandemic and tax cuts, revenue was down to 13% of GDP and expenditure was 20%, so it was an inherently unsustainable situation,\u201d he said.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span>
\nHe went on to explain how underlying problems were amplified by tax cuts introduced by the Rajapaksa government, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the adherence for too long to the \u2018alternate strategy\u2019. Coomaraswamy was referring to the alternate strategies adopted by the Central Bank in response to dwindling reserves.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The next steps<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

While commending recent moves by the new Central Bank Governor, Coomaraswamy said the recent interest rate adjustments and fuel price revisions alone won\u2019t suffice in the long-term. Sri Lanka has \u2018two big buckets\u2019 it has to address along with the negotiations to achieve an IMF programme, he said. \u201cOne is the fiscal framework, one that will get us on a path to debt sustainability. Two, electricity prices need to be adjusted significantly.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\nCoomaraswamy also expressed confidence that a staff level agreement with the IMF is likely to be achieved within four to eight weeks. \u201cIt is only the first step. The staff will then have to make a proposal to the executive board of the IMF for an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) which would give us about a billion dollars a year, over three years. For that to happen we have to show significant progress towards debt sustainability,\u201d he said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\u201cThere are concerns that there is stress in the banking systems,\u201d Coomaraswamy said. \u201cThe Governor was very clear the other day, where he said that the Central Bank is standing behind the banking system, do what is necessary to maintain the stability of the domestic banking system. There is an FX (forex) liquidity problem in one or two banks, which will need to be addressed. They need to come up with a plan to maintain stability of this side of the banking system, particularly the state banks as well as the whole of the domestic banking system,\u201d Coomaraswamy cautioned.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Economist at Frontier Research Chayu Damsinghe opines that the manner in which Sri Lankan leaders communicate the issues will remain crucial in building stability. \u201cAt this point, from Sri Lanka\u2019s perspective, the critical requirement is getting things available, getting rid of shortages. The more stability you can bring economically into the situation, the more those other things don\u2019t have to happen,\u201d he said.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span>
\nStability will aid in containing depreciation, interest rate hikes and therefore inflation, Damsinghe said. \u201cBut we are not talking about things immediately turning for the better. Things will get worse; some parts of the society are left out. The middle class who have had to only deal with a certain type of pain, now will have to deal with a different type of pain as a result of reforms,\u201d he warned.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\nHow the country deals with that will be a challenge, Damsinghe believes. \u201cYou are talking about a lot of people having less disposable incomes, having to make consumption choices. There are a lot of challenges in the short-term, for the people of the country. Politically, whatever the system is, to build enough trust and credibility with the people to convince them that the pain that they are going through is not permanent, that will be a difficult challenge in the current climate,\u201d he said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What\u2019s next for the Sri Lankan Economy?-by Kalani Kumarasinghe Source:Dailymirror Monday\u2019s briefing by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was a rude awakening for many across the country. Although several parliamentarians, economists and industry stakeholders had long warned that the Sri Lankan economy would eventually come to a standstill unless interventions are made, much of these calls […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":92185,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"aside","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[44255,42163,8793],"class_list":{"0":"post-92184","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-aside","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-articles","8":"tag-chayu-damsinghe","9":"tag-dr-indrajit-coomaraswamy","10":"tag-prime-minister-ranil-wickremesinghe","11":"post_format-post-format-aside"},"yoast_head":"\nWhat\u2019s next for the Sri Lankan Economy?-by Kalani Kumarasinghe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Monday\u2019s briefing by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was a rude awakening for many across the country.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What\u2019s next for the Sri Lankan Economy?-by Kalani Kumarasinghe\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Monday\u2019s briefing by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was a rude awakening for many across the country.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/whats-next-for-the-sri-lankan-economy-by-kalani-kumarasinghe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"eLanka\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/eLanka.com.au\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-05-19T16:14:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Sri-Lankan-Economy-e1652976279283.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"eLanka admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"eLanka admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/whats-next-for-the-sri-lankan-economy-by-kalani-kumarasinghe\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/whats-next-for-the-sri-lankan-economy-by-kalani-kumarasinghe\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"eLanka admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/#\/schema\/person\/f6e635b74ab35ef88a68a9973cacc5bd\"},\"headline\":\"What\u2019s next for the Sri Lankan Economy?-by Kalani Kumarasinghe\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-05-19T16:14:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/whats-next-for-the-sri-lankan-economy-by-kalani-kumarasinghe\/\"},\"wordCount\":1426,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/whats-next-for-the-sri-lankan-economy-by-kalani-kumarasinghe\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/websitedesigns.com.au\/elankanew\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Sri-Lankan-Economy-e1652976279283.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Chayu Damsinghe\",\"DR. 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